The Strategic Path and Countermeasures for Building Huawei's HarmonyOS Ecosystem

A Theoretical Reference based on the Historical Lessons of NEC PC-98

Abstract

To pursue technological self-reliance, Huawei launched fully native HarmonyOS in response to external technology supply cutoffs. The system breaks away from Android and achieves independent core technology. But it also faces multiple challenges. To examine how non-compatible strategies affect the operating system ecosystem, this article adopts a case study approach. It takes the PC-98 system of Nippon Electric Company (NEC) in the late 1990s as a historical reference sample, rather than a horizontal comparison, to review the reasons behind its rise and fall and to analyze HarmonyOS's current difficulties and potential risks. The study finds the following. First, the core of NEC's decline lay in misjudging closed incompatibility as a long-term moat, and Japan's shift in industrial policy from "support" to "laissez-faire" accelerated its collapse. Second, the core of HarmonyOS's current predicament comes from an incompatible strategy. It needs to face its long-term challenges. Third, the key to operating system ecosystem competition is developer competition based on business value, and HarmonyOS must complete the transition from being "policy-driven" to "profit-driven". Fourth, full-scenario interconnection and the AI revolution create a strategic window for HarmonyOS. But the window is time-sensitive, so the ecosystem leap needs to be achieved within a limited period. Drawing on the lessons of the PC-98, this article proposes optimization strategies that balance compatibility, coordinate developers and policies, pursue phased global rollout, and evaluate strategy dynamically. The study makes clear that real competition in operating systems is ecosystem competition. At its core, it is a contest for developers. The article argues for moving beyond extreme closure, for balancing independent innovation with open ecosystems and policy support with market forces, and for seizing the window for transformation. It also warns against path dependence and ecosystem collapse.