The Application of Event Study Method in Virtual Goods Markets: Based on CS:GO Skin Prices

Abstract

With the rapid advancement of information technology, virtual assets have experienced significant growth, both in terms of market value and variety. Among these, a new category of virtual assets rooted in online gaming has emerged.  Specifically, decorative items (commonly referred to as "skins") in Counter-Strike:  Global Offensive 2 (CS2) exhibit key characteristics of financial assets, such as price volatility, liquidity, and responsiveness to market events-making them a unique subject of economic analysis. Despite the growing economic significance of CS2 skins, there remains a lack of systematic methods to quantify how specific events influence their price dynamics. Existing studies often focus on broader virtual asset markets, with limited attention to the nuanced relationships between event-specific factors and price fluctuations of single highly-related item in gaming ecosystems.  This gap blocks both players (as casual traders) and investors from understanding market responses and managing associated risks. To address this, the present study proposes a precise analytical framework to assess the extent to which events impact the prices of specific CS2 items.  By doing so, it aims to clarify the causal links between same types of events and market reactions in this understudied domain. This work makes two key contributions: (1) It develops a scientific and replicable method to determine whether an event has a statistically significant impact on specific in-game items; (2) It provides actionable insights into the risks associated with different types of events, enabling more informed estimation of potential losses for market participants.