Geopolitical Risk and Supply Cycle Disruption: A Case Study of the Strait of Hormuz

Abstract

The Strait of Hormuz crisis in 2026 provides a classic case for studying how geopolitical risks disrupt the global supply chain cycle. The conventional view regards supply interruption as a binary event, that is, once the transportation channel is reopened, the operation will immediately return to normal. This article questions this hypothesis. We believe that the geopolitical shock has a lasting impact, which far exceeds the reopening of transportation routes. Using air freight rates, popular goods and data disclosed by enterprises, we have built an analytical framework containing three transmission paths: direct transportation delays, loss of production capacity and shipping network reorganization. We also introduced the concept of "asymmetric recovery" to describe the phenomenon that the time required for supply chain recovery far exceeds the duration of the initial shock. Case studies on aluminum, petrochemical products, helium and fertilizers show that the Strait of Hormuz is not only an energy channel, but also a multi-commodity industrial corridor. Among them, it will affect many industries such as agriculture, semiconductor manufacturing, automobiles and medical and health at the same time. These findings show that geopolitical risks cannot be simplified into a simple on or off state in the supply chain model. Enterprises must take measures such as diversifying supply sources, adjusting inventory strategies and strengthening organizational resilience to cope with long-term uncertainty.