Structural Evolution and Differentiated Pathways of the Provincial-Level Dual Circulation: An Empirical Study Using a Four-Quintile Classification based on China’s Multi-Regional Input-Output Tables, 1987-2017

Wanqing Liu

doi:10.6981/FEM.202608_7(8).0012

Authors

Wanqing Liu School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics, Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu, Anhui, China

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.6981/FEM.202608_7(8).0012

Keywords:

Dual Circulation; Provincial Economy; Structural Evolution; Differentiated Pathways.

Abstract

As the new development paradigm of the “dual circulation” is strategically implemented, provinces serve as the core units of implementation. Consequently, the patterns of evolution and distinctive characteristics of each province’s circulation structure naturally provide a crucial lens through which to understand the broader picture.Drawing on the “four-part classification” approach, this paper divides the dual circulation into four categories: intra-provincial, inter-provincial, international, and interactive circulation. Using data from China’s multi-region input-output tables for 1987–2017, the study systematically examines the structural changes and differentiation pathways of provincial-level dual circulation across five dimensions: national, regional, provincial, industrial, and case studies.At the national level, between 1987 and 2017, the share of intra-provincial circulation tended to decline but remained firmly established; inter-provincial circulation rose significantly and benefited a wide range of areas; foreign circulation first rose and then fell; and interactive circulation fluctuated upward. In terms of regional patterns, the eastern, central, western, and northeastern regions exhibited distinct gradients of differentiation.At the provincial level, regions can be categorized into four distinct development models; in terms of industrial structure, a significant trend toward synergy between high-end manufacturing and production-oriented services can be observed. Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Guangdong have taken different development paths due to variations in their geographical conditions, industrial foundations, and policy environments. This paper provides multidimensional empirical support for the optimization of the provincial dual circulation and offers valuable reference for implementing tailored policies.

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