Schedule Risk Evaluation and Control Countermeasures for Supporting Infrastructure Projects of Large-Scale Equipment based on ISM-BN

Dong Nie

doi:10.6981/FEM.202606_7(6).0006

Authors

Dong Nie

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.6981/FEM.202606_7(6).0006

Keywords:

Large-scale Equipment Supporting Infrastructure Projects; Owner's Perspective; Schedule Risk Control; ISM-BN.

Abstract

To address the issues of vague schedule risk identification, insufficient quantitative research, and poorly targeted control measures in supporting infrastructure projects for large-scale equipment, this paper takes the perspective of the owner (the construction unit) as the starting point. Through expert interviews, a set of risk factors for such projects is identified and established. Using Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM), the hierarchical relationships and propagation paths of schedule risks are revealed. A Bayesian Network (BN) model is then constructed for quantitative analysis to identify key risk nodes and causal chains, and to determine and classify schedule risk levels. Based on a comprehensive evaluation, targeted risk control measures are proposed, providing a reference for the owner's schedule management.

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