Inverted Yield Curve Signals Recession and Complicated Investment Behavior

Abstract

Historically, almost each time not long after the yield of long-term and short-term Treasury Bills is inverted, let’s say, one to two years, there would be a phenomenon of financial or economic bubble being from grown up to burst. This article will illustrate fundamentals behind the phenomenon of this Yield Inversion，and also, its connection to the following recession, namely, the different behavior of funds mainly gaining yields by holding  bonds for a very long time till their expiration day and those profiting from the price fluctuation by using leverages , and the Fed’s interest rate hiking and cutting cycle.