The Impact of Digital Economic Development on Regional Carbon Emission Intensity: A Dual Perspective on Technological Spillovers and Structural Transformation

Abstract

Against the dual background of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals and the in-depth development of the digital economy, exploring the impact mechanism and heterogeneous characteristics of the digital economy on regional carbon emission intensity carries important theoretical value and practical significance for achieving the coordinated progress of high-quality economic development and carbon emission reduction. This research systematically explores the influence of the digital economy on regional carbon emission intensity by leveraging a multi-faceted analytical approach. Specifically, it employs a two-way fixed effect model, a mediating effect model, and a heterogeneous analysis framework to examine this relationship from the dual lenses of technology spillover and structural transformation. Utilizing panel data spanning from 2012 to 2023 across 30 Chinese provinces, the study reveals that the expansion of the digital economy significantly curbs regional carbon emission intensity. Moreover, it finds that a one-unit increase in the digital economy level leads to a notable decline in regional carbon emission intensity. The digital economy can exert an indirect influence in reducing carbon emission intensity. It achieves this by fostering green technological innovation and driving industries to transition towards high value-added, low-pollution operational models. Consequently, technology spillover effects and structural transformation emerge as significant mediating factors that bridge the relationship between the digital economy and regional carbon emission intensity. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the digital economy's role in mitigating carbon emissions is more pronounced in regions located southeast of the Hu Huanyong Line and in economically underdeveloped areas. In contrast, no statistically significant impact is observed in regions northwest of the line and in those with higher levels of economic development. The research conclusions of this paper remain robust after a series of tests, including the replacement of core explanatory and dependent variables, the instrumental variable method, and the dynamic panel model. This study provides empirical support for clarifying the carbon emission reduction effect of the digital economy and its internal logic and offers a reference basis for regions to formulate coordinated policies for digital economy development and carbon emission reduction in accordance with local conditions.