Research on the Changes, Impacts and Countermeasure Suggestions of Gansu Province's Population Age Structure

Abstract

Based on Gansu Province's statistical data from 2010 to 2024, this study analyzes the evolutionary characteristics of the province's population age structure and its social-economic impacts. The research shows that Gansu Province has fully transitioned from the "demographic dividend period" to the initial stage of "deep aging". The core characteristics are as follows: first, the proportion of working-age population (15-64 years old) has dropped significantly to 68.43%, and the population dependency burden has rebounded rapidly from its historical low; second, regional differentiation has intensified, presenting a dual structure of "deep aging in core industrial cities" (such as Lanzhou and Jinchang) and "relative youthfulness in ethnic minority areas" (such as Linxia and Gannan). The profound changes in the population structure, on the one hand, have restrained the overall economic and financial development level of the province by weakening the foundation of labor supply, and on the other hand, have led to a decline in the resident savings rate in areas with a high degree of aging; the superposition of these two effects has jointly exacerbated the differences in regional development and urban-rural patterns within the province. To address these issues, this paper proposes a strategic orientation of "replacing quantity dividend with quality dividend", and suggests constructing a cross-regional coordination mechanism between population and industry, and deeply tapping the domestic demand potential of the "silver economy" to cope with the structural challenges in the era of negative population growth.